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Prediction for CME (2022-10-13T07:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-10-13T07:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/22003/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and to the South in STEREO A COR2. It has a separate faint shock that is only visible in SOHO LASCO coronagraph imagery with a more defined bulk portion seen in both SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME is a filament eruption centered around S28E08 starting around 2022-10-13T07:00Z. The eruption is most clearly visible in SDO/AIA 304, 193 (dimming/brightening), and STEREO A EUVI 195. From Tarik Salman (LASSOS team), a definite CME arrival signature was not observed during the expected arrival timeframe. There appeared to be an SIR/HSS arrival at L1 on 2022-10-16 and 2022-10-18 which makes it difficult to identify CMEs with real-time data only. In such cases, pitch angle distribution (PAD), charge state, and particle abundance are helpful in identifying a CME in mixed CME+HSS signatures.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-10-16T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/22005/1
Model Inputs:
2022-10-13T07:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-17.0, Lat.=-21.0, Speed=427.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2022-10-13T15:11Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-10-16T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-10-18T08:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-10-16T08:00Z
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-10-16T18:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221013_151100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221013_151100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221013_151100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221013_151100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221013_151100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221013_151100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221013_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221013_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221013_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221013_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221013_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221013_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221013_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221013_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221013_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221013_151100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 64.53 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2022-10-13T17:28Z

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